Category Archives: Gold

“Progressive” Attacks on Capitalism Were Key to Hitler’s Success


Ludwig von Mises wrote this essay in 1940 from Geneva, where he lived after Nazis forced him out of Austria and his apartment was ransacked by German troops.

“Progressive” Attacks on Capitalism Were Key to Hitler’s Success

Published on Mises.org  Date: February 7, 2019 – 2:00 PM
Author 1: Ludwig von Mises [1]

The following, written in 1940, is excerpted from Interventionism, An Economic Analysis, which was originally part of Nationaloekonomie [2], the German predecessor to Human Action.

Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini constantly proclaim that they are chosen by destiny to bring salvation to this world. They claim they are the leaders of the creative youth who fight against their outlived elders. They bring from the East the new culture which is to replace the dying Western civilization. They want to give the coup de grace to liberalism and capitalism; they want to overcome immoral egoism by altruism; they plan to replace the anarchic democracy by order and organization, the society of “classes” by the total state, the market economy by socialism. Their war is not a war for territorial expansion, for loot and hegemony like the imperialistic wars of the past, but a holy crusade for a better world to live in. And they feel certain of their victory because they are convinced that they are borne by “the wave of the future.”

It is a law of nature, they say, that great historic changes cannot take place peacefully or without conflict. It would be petty and stupid, they contend, to overlook the creative quality of their work because of some unpleasantness which the great world revolution must necessarily bring with it. They maintain one should not overlook the glory of the new gospel because of ill-placed pity for Jews and Masons, Poles and Czechs, Finns and Greeks, the decadent English aristocracy and the corrupt French bourgeoisie. Such softness and such blindness for the new standards of morality prove only the decadence of the dying capitalistic pseudo-culture. The whining and crying of impotent old men, they say, is futile; it will not stop the victorious advance of youth. No one can stop the wheel of history, or turn back the clock of time.

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Morgan Stanley’s #Commodities Outlook – Business Insider


MORGAN STANLEY: This Is What The The World’s 14 Most Important Commodities Will Do

mauritius sugar cane
Sugar cane plantation in Mauritius

With the growing global population increasingly demanding goods, many financial advisors have advised clients to invest in commodities. Morgan Stanley’s commodities team led by Hussein Allidina favors soybeans, corn, and wheat as poor weather conditions slam supplies.
They also like precious metals, particularly gold and silver, as loose monetary policy sends investors seeking something with more stable value.  In fact, Morgan Stanley recently called the Federal Reserve’s latest action a game changer for the yellow metal.
What follows are Morgan Stanley’s opinions and price targets for 14 major commodities.


Brent oil continues to be affected by geopolitical tensions

Projected 2012 average: $110 /bbl
2013 price: $115 /bbl

Middle East unrest and and easy central bank monetary policies continue to support oil prices, though softer fundamentals heading into 4Q12 should weaken year-end crude prices. Risks are skewed to the upside for 2013.

Source: Morgan Stanley

Natural gas supplies will tighten by the end of the year, eventually sending prices higher

Natural gas supplies will tighten by the end of the year, eventually sending prices higher
Natural gas compressor station

Projected 2012 average: $2.74 /mmBtu
2013 price: $4.00 /mmBtu

Oversupply continues to weigh, but slowing gas-directed drilling may begin to help tighten balances by late 2012.
Source: Morgan Stanley

 

Aluminum prices will stay at low levels due to oversupply and too much production

Aluminum prices will stay at low levels due to oversupply and too much production
Sean Gallup/Getty Images
Projected 2012 average: $2,100 /MT
2013 price: $2,200 /MT
Very high global inventory and excessive production capacity will lead to up to two years of headwinds.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Copper prices will lead the industrial metals due to supply concerns

Projected 2012 average: $7,900 /MT
2013 price: $8,300 /MT
Supply difficulties will keep copper prices elevated — the global inventory pipeline remains soft.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Nickel supplies remain high, but price risk is to the upside

Nickel supplies remain high, but price risk is to the upside
Projected 2012 average: $17,800 /MT
2013 price: $18,300 /MT 
Supply risks from any new project delays and the impact of developments in Indonesia will keep the market primed for a price rally.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Zinc will continue to suffer from oversupply for several more quarters

Projected 2012 average: $2,000 /MT
2013 price: $2,100 /MT
Record-high inventories at the current rates of demand weigh on prices, but production is slowing. 
Source: Morgan Stanley

Gold is the best commodity to own right now

Projected 2012 average: $1,677 /oz
2013 price: $1,816 /oz
Interest rates, risk aversion and strong physical market fundamentals will serve as tailwinds.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Silver prices will be supported by the same forces fueling gold’s rally

Projected 2012 average: $32 /oz
2013 price: $35 /oz

Negative real interest rates will limit downside price risk.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Platinum lacks the safe-haven status of gold or silver

Projected 2012 average: $1,554 /oz
2013 price: $1,715 /oz
Platinum lacks safe haven status and has limited investment demand. Slowing global GDP and lower discretionary spending remain headwinds.
Source: Morgan Stanley

Eclectica Fund’s April 2012 TEF Commentary


Eclectica Fund’s April 2012 Commentary

April 2012 TEF Commentary

April 2012 TEF Commentary

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